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The big shift: lifestyle changes why Australians are on the move

Leading commentator and adviser on consumer, cultural, and demographic trends, Bernard Salt, said our current population trends are underpinned by lifestyle seeking baby boomers.

“The Australian community has experienced a change in average life expectancy from 63 years in 1928 to a projected 81 years in 2008,” he said.

“This has meant that new phases of life have been created. In 1928, you went from being a child, to an adult and then straight to old age.

“We now experience an adolescent stage and more recently a lifestyle and retirement phase in between. This has led to a shift from suburban culture to increased occupancy in coastal towns as people enjoy their retirement.”

He said that infrastructure is a key factor that entices people to an area.

“Wyndham and Melton in Victoria were lucky to have 2,000 people move to the area over a 12 month period before the opening of the Ring Road, a major freeway connecting the area with surf cities and a particular lifestyle,” he said.“They now have 8,300 and almost 6,000 people respectively moving to the area each year.

“Our trends are quite different to those in the United States, however the driver is ultimately the same – lifestyle. The fastest growing county in the US is Maracopa, a central desert City. Americans go to the beach and play golf and like the desert. We don’t do desert. We do coast.”

Bernard Salt looked to the United States to predict what will happen in Australia in the future. “Sioux Falls, had a population of 198,000 people in 2003, an increase of 67,000 since 1976,” he said. “However a small town, Minor, just outside of Sioux Falls has experienced a great decline in population, from 4,000 people in 1976 to 2,700 in 2003.” This was the case for all the small surrounding towns in the area.

Bernard Salt believes this is where Australia is headed. Dubbo, a larger City in New South Wales, has already began drawing out the more skilled and talented people from a smaller regional town, Warren, thus greatly impacting on their population loss. He said that Australia is also losing their brightest graduates to overseas countries.

“They don’t have to pay their HECS debts while they are working in another country,” he said. “So they tend to think they will stay for an extra year, form a relationship and don’t come back.” Bernard Salt said the typical household is also evolving.

“The nuclear family was leading the social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades,” he said. “By 2011, however, the traditional nuclear family will lose its supremacy as the dominant household type to couples. By 2021, families and couples will be eclipsed by singles who will pull ahead by 2020.”

Bernard Salt warned that these single households would not necessarily be modern and happy, but depressed and lonely.

“Children are like the glue that draw people out of households to sporting events and charities,” he said. “Without children, singles can feel loneliness and seclusion.”

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